The reboot of the electric grid is an exciting investment opportunity that promises to be one of the biggest energy transformation stories of the early 21st century. Bloomberg New Energy Finance projects that by 2018 global smart grid investments should grow to $25.2 billion per year.
This article will give a brief overview of what the smart grid is, which companies are involved in the smart grid industry, and what strategies the effective smart grid investor can utilize.
What Is the Smart Grid?Return on investment resulting from upgrad- ing an old refrigerator. Exhibit 1 The $130 billion question The U.S. Smart grid value at stake is over $130 billion annually. Smart grid benefits by 2019 $ Billions annually, 2009 dollars Description of benefits Customer applications AMI Grid applications McKinsey on Smart Grid US Value at stake.
By integrating two-way communication and feedback into the power system, the smart grid will efficiently distribute power to where it is need, when it is needed. This is very different from just delivering electricity everywhere all the time, which is the current grid model. Additionally, the smart grid will better integrate alternative energy producers such as wind, solar and other renewable sources.
Most of what drives the grid now is ensuring that there is enough electricity during peak usage times so the system will not fail. That means that there is plenty of excess capacity during non-peak periods, which means tremendous room for increasing efficiencies. One example of this relates to electric vehicles. Vehicle battery systems could be set to charge at night, when peak demand is low and there is plenty of capacity. Cars that are parked during the day could then feed power back into the grid when electricity demand is higher.
Below are some of the characteristics of a smart grid according to the National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST):
• Improves power reliability and quality
• Optimizes facility utilization and averts construction of backup (peak load) power plants
• Enhances capacity and efficiency of existing electric power networks
• Improves resilience to disruption
• Enables predictive maintenance and 'self-healing' responses to system disturbances
• Facilitates expanded deployment of renewable energy sources
• Accommodates distributed power sources
• Reduces greenhouse gas emissions by enabling electric vehicles and new power sources
• Reduces oil consumption by reducing the need for inefficient generation during peak usage periods
• Presents opportunities to improve grid security
• Enables transition to plug-in electric vehicles and new energy storage options
What makes the smart grid a must-do endeavor is the synergistic potential of greatly reducing carbon emissions and other pollutants, while at the same time lowering electric costs.
Smart Grid CompaniesThe Roen Financial Report tracks almost 60 publicly traded smart grid companies. We take a broad view of the smart grid when placing companies in this category. Included are those that work in advanced power transmission, energy storage, grid software and other areas. Companies we follow, therefore, range widely in size, industry, business model and other aspects.
It is hard to find a 'pure play' smart grid stock. However, six companies the Roen Financial Report covers are involved in smart grid and have a very strong alternative energy focus, indicated in bold (note that Ecotality has filed for bankruptcy, so caution for that company is advised). Many of the larger companies on the list, in contrast, work in a variety of enterprises. They are important to take account of, however, if they have a strong presence in one or more smart grid business areas.
Smart Grid Investments - Two Stocks and One ETFOne of the most ubiquitous communications equipment company is Cisco Systems, Inc. (NASDAQ:CSCO). As the internet grew in the 1990s, Cisco grew along with it into one of silicon-valley's giants. Its routers, switches, security devices and related equipment move mountains of digital information for virtually everything from raw data to video. As such, Cisco is one of the backbone companies in creating a robust two-way smart grid communication system.
The financials for Cisco look very good as of fall 21013. Earnings are at a seven-year high, and sales have been steadily growing for the past eight quarters. Returns on Cisco stock have been very good relative to value and risk. It also has low debt. For this and other reasons, Cisco is a component of the Roen Financial Report Paradigm Portfolio, making it one of our top picks.
On the down side, Cisco is considered overvalued at current trading levels. As can be seen on the Fair Value chart below, Cisco has been trading at the top of its fair value range since July 2013 (the dark blue line shows the weekly closing stock price, and the shaded area is the fair value range for the company). The stock price has continued to drop since reaching its overvalued status. Though this may be a good stock for the long-term investor, waiting until the price looks more attractive is a good strategy.
Quanta Services, Inc. (NYSE:PWR) is a specialty contractor in the energy industry that has a large role to play in the smart grid build out. This Texas-based company offers infrastructure solutions for electric power, telecommunications, and other industries. Services include work on renewable energy facilities, electric power transmission and distribution networks, and substation upgrades.
Also a Paradigm Portfolio stock, Quanta Services has had nicely growing annual sales since the economic meltdown in 2009. It also has very low debt, and is well liked by analysts. Free cash flow for the company has been positive for four out of the past eight quarters. Back in early 2011 PWR was trading at upper levels of its fair value channel, so investors would have been paying top dollar for the stock in our estimate. Currently, however, Quanta Services is trading at the bottom of its fair value channel, so looks more attractive as a buy.
Another way to efficiently diversify in smart grid investing is through an Exchange Traded Fund (ETF). One of the more highly rated green funds is First Trust NASDAQ® Clean Edge® Smart Grid Infrastructure Index Fund (NASDAQ:GRID). The Roen Financial Report rates GRID as a Rank 2 fund on a scale of one to five, one being best. Relative to other alternative energy ETFs, GRID has a good risk/reward ratio, is very tax efficient and has low management fees.
Overall, I believe smart grid companies will prove to be an excellent long-term investment if you are strategic in picking the right companies.
Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it. I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.
Top StoriesTop Stories
- Sempra Energy upended Warren Buffett's plans to buy Texas transmission company Oncor.
- Transmission companies are attracting investors' attention because they produce a steady, reliable stream of income.
- These companies stand to benefit from investment to make the grid smarter and accommodate the growing role of renewable power in America's energy mix.
Why billionaire investors like Warren Buffett are chasing after this energy investment
Warren Buffett was poised to add Texas' largest electricity transmission and distribution network to Berkshire Hathaway's energy portfolio, but a quiet campaign by California utility Sempra Energy has spoiled the Oracle of Omaha's carefully laid plans.
The battle over Oncor highlights the value that billionaire investors like Buffett and Paul Singer assign to the businesses that move energy across America. This week, Buffett backed out of the deal after Sempra topped his $9 billion bid, a coup for Oncor bond investor Singer, who argued Berkshire's offer was too low.
The transmission and distribution business — linking power plants to businesses and residences via critical infrastructure — may not seem like the type of sector that would produce this sort of drama. But in a power industry that has been rocked by disruption from cheap natural gas and the adoption of renewable energy, the transmission business has proven relatively safe.
Bankrupt utility company abandons $9 billion Warren Buffett deal
The companies that operate the wires and transmission towers that deliver electricity generate a steady return from rates that are set by state utility commissions. Buffett has called those earnings 'recession-resilient' because utilities provide an 'essential service for which demand is remarkably steady.'
'Although there are some potential risks to that return, historically there have been few, if any, interruptions to the remuneration,' said Ross Baldick, a strategic consultant and professor at the University of Texas at Austin who researches the economics of power systems.
'Moreover, current regulated rates of return are attractive compared to other low-risk investments, such as bonds,' he explained.
Texas is particularly attractive because electricity demand is growing in the Lone Star State, while power consumption stagnates throughout much of the country. Growing demand for electricity will typically require investments in new infrastructure, said Baldick.
The Texas Public Utility Commission, like agencies in other states, regulates transmission rates. When it identifies new infrastructure needs, it bakes in a return on investment into those rates. That mitigates risks for the companies that operate and invest in the transmission lines.
'That's essentially a guaranteed return for them on that investment eventually because we do continue to see growth,' said Robbie Searcy, communications manager at the Electric Reliability Council of Texas, which operates the electric grid and manages the energy market in the state.
'That's essentially a guaranteed return for them on that investment eventually because we do continue to see growth,' said Robbie Searcy, communications manager at the Electric Reliability Council of Texas, which operates the electric grid and manages the energy market in the state.
In Texas, transmission projects are underway or under consideration to address growing needs in the Houston metro area, the Lower Rio Grande Valley, the Dallas-Fort Worth area and the shale oil producing parts of Western Texas, she said.
The growth of wind and solar power is also creating new opportunities for transmission companies. Wind and solar farms are typically located in remote areas, creating the need for high-voltage wires to carry their clean power to demand centers.
At the same time, utilities are increasingly focused on using network sensors and other equipment to create a 'smart grid,' which would allow them to better monitor the flow of power from renewable sources subject to disruptions from weather.
To modernize and strengthen the U.S. grid, utilities need to add about 42,000 miles of high-voltage wire to the country's existing 450,000 miles — an endeavor that would cost about $8.5 billion per year over 10 years, according to Massoud Amin, an expert in grid reliability at the University of Minnesota.
'Transmission becomes the superhighway of our ability to actually integrate diverse and disparate sources of energy into our network,' said Amin, who has been called the 'father of the smart grid.'
In the process of building out this infrastructure, companies will not achieve 'huge' double-digit earnings and revenue growth, but they can generate 'very, very stable single-digit growth,' Amin said.
Buffett and his Berkshire Hathaway Energy — run by one of Buffett's top deputies, Greg Abel — understand this paradigm, in Amin's view.
The investment philosophy popularized by Warren Buffett may be about to make a comeback
Berkshire Hathaway has invested heavily in wind, solar and hydropower on the electricity generation side of the business, while building out a portfolio of transmission businesses from Texas and the Great Plains, through the Southwest and the Rockies and up the Pacific Coast.
But the Oracle of Omaha is also known for avoiding bidding wars. In the case of Oncor, hedge fund titan and distressed asset investor Singer appears to have successfully exploited that tenet of the Buffett philosophy.
Singer's Elliott Management threatened a $9.3 billion rival bid for Oncor. In the end, Singer's gamble that someone would top Buffett's offer paid off when Sempra swooped in.
In a statement on Monday, Abel suggested that Berkshire Hathaway Energy is not done hunting for deals in Texas.
'Texas is a great state for business, and we look forward to future opportunities to invest,' he said.